To Be First
I’m mostly writing this as a note to myself, for the future.
Being first is very important, because that’s when markets, of any kind, are most inefficient.
- Market making on a new venue with little competition
- MEV on a new protocol
- Info that markets haven’t priced yet (Twitter is oftentimes 6 months ahead)
- The labor market in certain cases, like startups or micro-acquisitions
The other thing is that spending lots of money and having a rich lifestyle kind of forces you to work on the right scale of problems.
maybe in college I would’ve been okay spending my time on making an arb bot that makes 10k/year because that pays rent, but that’d be a waste of my time now if that’s the max upside
Downside of acting on new opportunities right away is something small and capped, but upside is likely more
Directionally related to APM
most actions behave like an option in terms of expectancy.